Major U.S. financial bill sees odds slashed to 60%

June 9, 2026 - 03:12

A key piece of legislation once viewed as the best hope for establishing clear crypto rules in the United States is hitting serious headwinds. Lawmakers, regulators, and digital asset firms have long agreed that the country needs a coherent framework for cryptocurrencies. But with Congress facing a shrinking legislative calendar and competing priorities, the chances of passing a major financial bill are fading.

Sources tracking the bill now estimate its odds of passage at roughly 60 percent, down significantly from earlier optimism. The legislation, which aims to define whether digital tokens are securities or commodities, has been a top priority for the crypto industry. It would hand more authority to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an agency seen as friendlier to crypto than the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The problem is time. The House and Senate have only a limited number of working days left this year, and they are already wrestling with government funding, defense policy, and farm bill reauthorization. Crypto regulation, while important to a vocal industry, does not command the same urgency on Capitol Hill. Some lawmakers have also raised concerns about investor protections and market stability, slowing momentum.

Industry advocates are still pushing hard, but they acknowledge the window is closing. If the bill does not move in the next few weeks, it could be pushed into next year, when a new Congress might have different priorities. For now, the odds are slipping, and the path forward is narrowing.