XRP ETF Buying Has Dropped 96% Since Launch: Can Inflows Reach Standard Chartered’s $8 Billion Forecast?

August 16, 2026 - 23:55

When Standard Chartered projected that spot XRP exchange-traded funds could attract as much as $8 billion in their first twelve months, the number felt bold but plausible. That was before the actual trading data started coming in. Now, just weeks after the first products hit the market, daily buying has collapsed by roughly 96 percent from the initial surge. The gap between the bank's forecast and reality is widening by the day, and the window to close it is closing fast.

The first few sessions saw a burst of pent-up demand, with institutional players and retail traders alike piling in. But that enthusiasm faded almost as quickly as it appeared. Average daily net inflows have dropped from hundreds of millions to a trickle, leaving the funds far behind the pace needed to hit the $8 billion mark by November. At this rate, even a fraction of that target looks like a stretch.

The one factor that could change everything is a single piece of legislation currently stalled in the Senate. The bill, which would clarify the regulatory status of digital assets and make it far easier for banks and pension funds to hold XRP ETFs, is seen as the catalyst that could reignite demand. But the vote is expected to be razor-thin, and the odds are not in favor of passage. Without it, the funds are left to rely on organic retail interest, which has proven fragile.

Some analysts argue the comparison is unfair. The first month of any new ETF product always sees outsized flows that normalize quickly, and XRP's drop is not unique. But the sheer scale of the decline, combined with the lack of a clear institutional buyer base, makes Standard Chartered's forecast look increasingly optimistic. The next few weeks will be telling. If the Senate vote fails, the $8 billion figure may go down as one of the more memorable misses in recent crypto market history.